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Divisional Spherical Finest Guess
The Cleveland Browns and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs will sq. off within the AFC Divisional spherical matchup on Sunday. The Browns took care of enterprise towards the Steelers final Sunday and now get to face a Chiefs workforce coming off the first-round bye.
As of writing, 54% of the bets and 63% of the cash is coming in on Cleveland. This might change come Sunday with skilled bettors taking their positions earlier within the week and public bettors often getting motion the day.
The very first thing folks will consider this sport is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes coming off the goodbye. Because the two have been collectively, the Chiefs have averaged over 30 factors per sport when Reid and Mahomes play a sport after the bye.
In keeping with Soccer Outsiders, this isn’t nice for a Browns protection that ranks twenty fifth in defensive DVOA. Cleveland has been taking part in higher protection down the stretch of the season. Final week, the Browns held the Steelers to 10 factors within the first half after Cleveland ran away with that sport.
The Chiefs may get off to a gradual begin. Mahomes and different key starters on the offense didn’t play in Week 17 towards the Chargers, that means they’ve now been off for 2 weeks. This might have an effect on the workforce attempting to get again right into a groove for not taking part in for some time. Kansas Metropolis may begin gradual, permitting the Browns to leap out to an early lead. We did see how that went for the Texans within the divisional spherical final yr towards the Chiefs after going up 24-0.
The distinction this yr is that the Browns are significantly better coached than the Texans from final season. To not point out, the Chiefs protection has not been one of the best this season both. Kansas Metropolis ranks twenty second in defensive DVOA, and the Browns have an offense that may additionally put up factors.
I wouldn’t be shocked if this sport is excessive scoring on Sunday. The Chiefs and Browns have each been in shootouts this yr, and we may see one at Arrowhead. This makes me just like the Browns this weekend as a result of it has the firepower to hold with Kansas Metropolis as a consequence of their weak protection.
The matchup is way more, even all issues thought of. Even with Kansas Metropolis having the bye week, the Browns ought to commute with the defending Tremendous Bowl Champions.